Confidence -> Competence?

[Digit]

Interesting. I found two articles on Forbes that say exactly opposite things. Confidence Breeds Success and Confidence does not lead to success. Which do you believe?

[mic0]

I'm sure you left it vague on purpose, but... are you asking does confidence necessarily lead to success? Does it generally lead to success? Does saying "yes" mean the opposite is true (lack of confidence leads to failure)? Are we talking actual confidence or put on confidence? (And does that distinction matter? I'm fairly certain my brother has actual confidence in at least some of his past choices but he hasn't held a job for more than a year for quite some time.)

[bobtheenchantedone]

I'm not comfortable giving a "yes/no" answer to that question. I would say that confidence does tend to lead one to work hard, look for and take advantage of opportunities, and keep going in the face of setbacks, but there is no way that any one x will lead to success.

[Digit]

From the article asserting the negative:

When scientific studies measure not just current levels of confidence and career success but also previous competence (e.g., talent, skill, or potential), the already small correlation between confidence and career success disappears. For example, one of our studies tested thousands of school pupils on initial competence (their school performance), subsequent career confidence, and later academic performance. The kids who were more confident at age nine tended to do a bit better in their studies at age twelve. However, when we took into account how they had performed until age nine, it became clear that the only reason for their higher confidence was their previous higher competence — that they had done well in the first place. The path is quite simple and intuitive: Kids who do well feel confident because they did well; kids who feel confident despite not having done well don’t end up doing any better. Competence leads to confidence, but not vice versa.

[Digit]

Interesting question that glances on this thread in an article discussing why some people learn faster than others.

Why are some people so much more effective at learning from their mistakes? After all, everybody screws up. The important part is what happens next. Do we ignore the mistake, brushing it aside for the sake of our self-confidence? Or do we investigate the error, seeking to learn from the snafu?

Sometimes, high confidence can prevent a learning opportunity.

[Shrinky Dink]

I think there is a correlation between confidence and success, but I don't think that one will guarantee the other.

[SmurfBlueSnuggie]

I don't think that confidence creates competence. However, I think that if two equally competent individuals faced a challenge, confidence would be the deciding factor. It can make up for some lack of competence, but it cannot create competence.

[Digit]

I would agree with that, SmurfBlueSnuggie. I was intrigued by the experiment done by Carol Dweck described in the Wired article I linked to. After one task, one group of children was told "You must be smart at this." and another group was told "You must have worked very hard." The children were then given a choice between a hard task and an easy one.

When Dweck was designing the experiment, she expected the different forms of praise to have a rather modest effect. After all, it was just one sentence. But it soon became clear that the type of compliment given to the fifth graders dramatically affected their choice of tests. When kids were praised for their effort, nearly 90 percent chose the harder set of puzzles. However, when kids were praised for their intelligence, most of them went for the easier test. What explains this difference? According to Dweck, praising kids for intelligence encourages them to “look” smart, which means that they shouldn’t risk making a mistake.

[Portia]

I would agree with that, SmurfBlueSnuggie. I was intrigued by the experiment done by Carol Dweck described in the Wired article I linked to. After one task, one group of children was told "You must be smart at this." and another group was told "You must have worked very hard." The children were then given a choice between a hard task and an easy one.

When Dweck was designing the experiment, she expected the different forms of praise to have a rather modest effect. After all, it was just one sentence. But it soon became clear that the type of compliment given to the fifth graders dramatically affected their choice of tests. When kids were praised for their effort, nearly 90 percent chose the harder set of puzzles. However, when kids were praised for their intelligence, most of them went for the easier test. What explains this difference? According to Dweck, praising kids for intelligence encourages them to “look” smart, which means that they shouldn’t risk making a mistake.

Oh man my team lead talked about this very problem with me the other day. She diagnosed me as classic Gifted and Talented child who was never challenged and has a crippling fear of failure. I'm going to really work on risk-taking, accountability, and letting myself fail the rest of this year. But yeah I think I was always praised for my "smartness" not "working hard" so I didn't, really, until I was like 25.

[vorpal blade]

In my opinion you have to be both competent and confident to succeed. I don't think people succeed, even though they are competent, if they lack confidence. On the other hand, confidence is only valuable when it is built upon real competence. The phony praise and "everyone is a winner" attitude to instill confidence doesn't help, because it leads one to think that competence isn't needed to be successful.

[Portia]

In my opinion you have to be both competent and confident to succeed. I don't think people succeed, even though they are competent, if they lack confidence. On the other hand, confidence is only valuable when it is built upon real competence. The phony praise and "everyone is a winner" attitude to instill confidence doesn't help, because it leads one to think that competence isn't needed to be successful.

#cubscouttrophies

[Digit]

Sal Khan, founder of Khan Academy, apparently has also found the research of Carol Dweck and proclaims he will never tell his son that he's smart.