I agree with the writers in that diving whether or not a justice will vote a certain way is hard to do in a hypothetical situation. (However, there is remarkable accuracy on certain issues.)
The key thing I thought should have been brought up is that Justice Kennedy is almost certainly a swing vote. While Kennedy tends to vote with the Republican bloc on many issues, he is decidedly with the liberal bloc on other issues. A key issue among these is federalism. Even if party-line votes were made, Kennedy would most likely side with the liberal part of the court and the legislation would be upheld.
That being said, there is a lot of discussion that this is an open-and-shut case in a lot of regards. Most center-to-left legal scholars (who tend to be much further to the left than the American public) have agreed that this is not a case that will really survive. A good deal of scholars on the right say, "I disagree with the legislation, but I don't think the SCOTUS will actually overturn it." Then, some remaining fraction believe it is unconstitutional and could actually be struck down. The key point is, most pundits discussing the legislation today believe it will be upheld. We'll have to see.
57284 - Health Care Constitutionality
Moderator: Marduk